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Borislav 2009 vs Asenovets — Third League - Southeast 2018

Borislav 2009
Borislav 2009
FT
8 – 0
Asenovets
Asenovets
4/20/2019Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Round 27Stadion Borislav (Parvomay)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Borislav 200958%
×Draw21%
Asenovets21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borislav 2009
2.10
Asenovets
1.18

Borislav 2009 creates 78% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 109 away

creates per match

Borislav 2009
1.59
Asenovets
1.07

allows per match

Borislav 2009
1.29
Asenovets
2.61

finishing

Borislav 2009+0.00on par
Asenovets+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borislav 2009 ↓

Asenovets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Borislav 2009 or draw
79%
Borislav 2009 or Asenovets
79%
Draw or Asenovets
42%

Winning margin

Borislav 2009 wins by 2+
35%
Asenovets wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Borislav 2009 1+ goals
88%
Borislav 2009 2+ goals
62%
Borislav 2009 3+ goals
35%
Asenovets 1+ goals
69%
Asenovets 2+ goals
33%
Asenovets 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Borislav 2009 (draw refunded)
74%
Asenovets (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borislav 2009 at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.29 · 79 matches

Asenovets away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.61 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borislav 2009 attack 1.59 + Asenovets defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.10

Asenovets attack 1.07 + Borislav 2009 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Borislav 2009 scores more
58%
level
21%
Asenovets scores more
21%

Borislav 2009 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Borislav 2009 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Borislav 2009 8–0 Asenovets

Borislav 2009 beat Asenovets 8-0 in Third League - Southeast on April 20, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Borislav (Parvomay).