Borgeby W 1–3 Lidköping W: Result & Stats

Borgeby W

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Lidköping W

6/20/2021

Elitettan · Round 10Borgeby IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Borgeby W28%

×Draw19%

Lidköping W53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Borgeby WExpected goals in this matchLidköping W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

2.45

Borgeby W

1.75

Lidköping W

2.45

Lidköping W creates 40% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 52 away

1.46

creates per match

1.67

3.23

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

Borgeby W

1.46

Lidköping W

1.67

allows per match

Borgeby W

3.23

Lidköping W

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Borgeby W+0.00on par

Lidköping W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borgeby W ↓

Lidköping W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Borgeby W or draw

47%

Borgeby W or Lidköping W

81%

Draw or Lidköping W

72%

Winning margin

Borgeby W wins by 2+

13%

Lidköping W wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Borgeby W 1+ goals

83%

Borgeby W 2+ goals

52%

Borgeby W 3+ goals

25%

Lidköping W 1+ goals

91%

Lidköping W 2+ goals

70%

Lidköping W 3+ goals

44%

Draw no bet

Borgeby W (draw refunded)

34%

Lidköping W (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borgeby W at home — creates 1.46, concedes 3.23 · 13 matches

Lidköping W away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.04 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borgeby W attack 1.46 + Lidköping W defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.75

Lidköping W attack 1.67 + Borgeby W defence 3.23 → ÷2 → 2.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Borgeby W scores more

28%

level

19%

Lidköping W scores more

53%

Lidköping W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Lidköping W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff