Boreham Wood 3–2 York: Result & Stats | League #43

Boreham Wood

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

York

C. O'Connell 87'

C. Coxe 78'

L. Richardson 48'

O. Banks 90'

O. Pearce 6'

3/3/2026

League #43 · Round 26Meadow Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Boreham Wood29%

×Draw26%

York45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Boreham WoodExpected goals in this matchYork

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.44

Boreham Wood

1.11

York

1.44

York creates 30% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 48 away

1.15

creates per match

1.63

1.25

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Boreham Wood

1.15

York

1.63

allows per match

Boreham Wood

1.25

York

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Boreham Wood+0.00on par

York+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boreham Wood ↓

York →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Boreham Wood or draw

55%

Boreham Wood or York

74%

Draw or York

71%

Winning margin

Boreham Wood wins by 2+

11%

York wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Boreham Wood 1+ goals

67%

Boreham Wood 2+ goals

30%

Boreham Wood 3+ goals

10%

York 1+ goals

76%

York 2+ goals

42%

York 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Boreham Wood (draw refunded)

40%

York (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boreham Wood at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches

York away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.08 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boreham Wood attack 1.15 + York defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.11

York attack 1.63 + Boreham Wood defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Boreham Wood scores more

29%

level

26%

York scores more

45%

York at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "York will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

O. Pearce↳ Z. Johnson

45+2'

J. Stones

45+4'

M. Williams

48'

L. Richardson↳ Z. Brunt

53'

56'

61'

61'

66'

M. Fagan-Walcott← B. Brookes

66'

D. Batty← A. Hunt

66'

O. Banks← J. King

71'

A. Newby← J. Grey

75'

L. Ayinde← L. Richardson

78'

C. Coxe↳ Z. Brunt

82'

M. Marshall-Miranda

84'

J. Newton← F. Ilesanmi

87'

C. O'Connell↳ R. Booty

89'

C. Hewitt← O. Pearce

90+4'

C. Coxe

90+5'

C. Clayden← A. Abdulmalik

90+5'

T. White← Z. Brunt

90'

O. Banks

Boreham

York

1

Male

15

▼

King

27

Williams

29

A

Johnson

3

Kitching

8

▼

Hunt

21

Boateng

14

▼

Brookes

12

▼

Grey

9

Stones

10

⚽

▼

Pearce

22

Curd

2

⚽

Coxe

6

⚽

O'Connell

5

Bush

3

▼

Ilesanmi

21

Marshall-

23

A

Booty

20

⚽

▼

Richardso

8

A

▼

Brunt

10

▼

Abdulmali

32

Rush

Manager: Luke Garrard

75'▲L. Ayinde←▼L. Richardson

84'▲J. Newton←▼F. Ilesanmi

90+5'▲C. Clayden←▼A. Abdulmalik

90+5'▲T. White←▼Z. Brunt

Boreham Wood substitutes

4Payne11Ayinde12Newton14Henry17Clayden19White24Robinson

66'▲M. Fagan-Walcott←▼B. Brookes

66'▲D. Batty←▼A. Hunt

66'▲O. Banks←▼J. King

71'▲A. Newby←▼J. Grey

89'▲C. Hewitt←▼O. Pearce

York substitutes

31Sykes-Kenworthy4Fagan-Walcott5Howe17Hewitt18Batty28Banks30Newby

League #43: Boreham Wood 3–2 York

Boreham Wood beat York 3-2 in League #43 on March 3, 2026.

Goals: O. Pearce (6'), L. Richardson (48'), C. Coxe (78'), C. O'Connell (87'), O. Banks (90').

The match was played at Meadow Park in Borehamwood.

Boreham Wood vs York — League #43 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #43: Boreham Wood 3–2 York