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Boreham Wood vs Watford — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Boreham Wood
Boreham Wood
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Watford
Watford
Unknown 84'
T. White 18'
M. Doumbia 55'
7/11/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Boreham Wood28%
×Draw30%
Watford42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boreham Wood
0.90
Watford
1.17

Watford creates 30% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Boreham Wood
1.00
Watford
1.20

allows per match

Boreham Wood
1.14
Watford
0.80

finishing

Boreham Wood+0.00on par
Watford+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boreham Wood ↓

Watford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–115%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Boreham Wood or draw
58%
Boreham Wood or Watford
70%
Draw or Watford
72%

Winning margin

Boreham Wood wins by 2+
10%
Watford wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Boreham Wood 1+ goals
59%
Boreham Wood 2+ goals
23%
Boreham Wood 3+ goals
6%
Watford 1+ goals
69%
Watford 2+ goals
33%
Watford 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Boreham Wood (draw refunded)
40%
Watford (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boreham Wood at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Watford away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boreham Wood attack 1.00 + Watford defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Watford attack 1.20 + Boreham Wood defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Boreham Wood scores more
28%
level
30%
Watford scores more
42%

Watford at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
T. White
32'
T. White
46'
M. Adu Poku← A. Nabizada
55'
M. Doumbia
57'
T. Akomeah← K. Keben
57'
L. Espain← H. Kyprianou
84'
89'
R. Booty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Boreham Wood 2 – 1 Watford

Boreham Wood beat Watford 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 11, 2026.

Goals: T. White (18'), M. Doumbia (55'), ? (84').