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Borec vs Karaorman — Second League 2019

Borec
Borec
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Karaorman
Karaorman
10/29/2022Second LeagueSecond League · Round 10Stadion Zoran Paunov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Borec39%
×Draw24%
Karaorman36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borec
1.53
Karaorman
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

creates per match

Borec
0.83
Karaorman
0.70

allows per match

Borec
2.23
Karaorman
2.23

finishing

Borec+0.00on par
Karaorman+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borec ↓

Karaorman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Borec or draw
64%
Borec or Karaorman
76%
Draw or Karaorman
61%

Winning margin

Borec wins by 2+
19%
Karaorman wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Borec 1+ goals
78%
Borec 2+ goals
45%
Borec 3+ goals
20%
Karaorman 1+ goals
77%
Karaorman 2+ goals
43%
Karaorman 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Borec (draw refunded)
52%
Karaorman (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borec at home — creates 0.83, concedes 2.23 · 30 matches

Karaorman away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.23 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borec attack 0.83 + Karaorman defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.53

Karaorman attack 0.70 + Borec defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Borec scores more
39%
level
24%
Karaorman scores more
36%

Borec at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Borec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Borec vs Karaorman

Karaorman beat Borec 2-0 in Second League on October 29, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Zoran Paunov in Veles.