Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Boreale vs Nocerina — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Boreale
Boreale
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nocerina
Nocerina
3/3/2024Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 25Stadio Comunale Aranova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Boreale22%
×Draw31%
Nocerina48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boreale
0.70
Nocerina
1.19

Nocerina creates 70% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

creates per match

Boreale
0.59
Nocerina
1.21

allows per match

Boreale
1.18
Nocerina
0.82

finishing

Boreale+0.00on par
Nocerina+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boreale ↓

Nocerina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–118%
0–211%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Boreale or draw
52%
Boreale or Nocerina
69%
Draw or Nocerina
78%

Winning margin

Boreale wins by 2+
6%
Nocerina wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Boreale 1+ goals
50%
Boreale 2+ goals
16%
Boreale 3+ goals
3%
Nocerina 1+ goals
70%
Nocerina 2+ goals
33%
Nocerina 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Boreale (draw refunded)
31%
Nocerina (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boreale at home — creates 0.59, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Nocerina away — creates 1.21, concedes 0.82 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boreale attack 0.59 + Nocerina defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.70

Nocerina attack 1.21 + Boreale defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Boreale scores more
22%
level
31%
Nocerina scores more
48%

Nocerina at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Nocerina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Boreale vs Nocerina

Boreale and Nocerina drew 0-0 in Serie D - Girone G on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Aranova in Fiumicino.