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Boreale vs Latte Dolce — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Boreale
Boreale
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Latte Dolce
Latte Dolce
10/8/2023Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 5Stadio Comunale Aranova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Boreale34%
×Draw29%
Latte Dolce37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boreale
1.09
Latte Dolce
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 82 away

creates per match

Boreale
0.59
Latte Dolce
1.10

allows per match

Boreale
1.18
Latte Dolce
1.59

finishing

Boreale+0.00on par
Latte Dolce+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boreale ↓

Latte Dolce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Boreale or draw
63%
Boreale or Latte Dolce
71%
Draw or Latte Dolce
66%

Winning margin

Boreale wins by 2+
14%
Latte Dolce wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Boreale 1+ goals
66%
Boreale 2+ goals
30%
Boreale 3+ goals
10%
Latte Dolce 1+ goals
68%
Latte Dolce 2+ goals
32%
Latte Dolce 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Boreale (draw refunded)
48%
Latte Dolce (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boreale at home — creates 0.59, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Latte Dolce away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.59 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boreale attack 0.59 + Latte Dolce defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.09

Latte Dolce attack 1.10 + Boreale defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Boreale scores more
34%
level
29%
Latte Dolce scores more
37%

Latte Dolce at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Latte Dolce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Boreale vs Latte Dolce

Latte Dolce beat Boreale 1-0 in Serie D - Girone G on October 8, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Aranova in Fiumicino.