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Boreale vs Cavese — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Boreale
Boreale
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Cavese
Cavese
4/13/2024Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 31Stadio dei Marsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Boreale16%
×Draw27%
Cavese57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boreale
0.62
Cavese
1.42

Cavese creates 129% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Boreale
0.59
Cavese
1.65

allows per match

Boreale
1.18
Cavese
0.65

finishing

Boreale+0.00on par
Cavese+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boreale ↓

Cavese →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–118%
0–213%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Boreale or draw
43%
Boreale or Cavese
73%
Draw or Cavese
84%

Winning margin

Boreale wins by 2+
4%
Cavese wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Boreale 1+ goals
46%
Boreale 2+ goals
13%
Boreale 3+ goals
3%
Cavese 1+ goals
76%
Cavese 2+ goals
41%
Cavese 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Boreale (draw refunded)
22%
Cavese (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boreale at home — creates 0.59, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Cavese away — creates 1.65, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boreale attack 0.59 + Cavese defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.62

Cavese attack 1.65 + Boreale defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Boreale scores more
16%
level
27%
Cavese scores more
57%

Cavese at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Cavese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Boreale vs Cavese

Cavese beat Boreale 4-1 in Serie D - Girone G on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio dei Marsi in Avezzano.