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Boreale vs Ardea — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Boreale
Boreale
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Ardea
Ardea
11/26/2023Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 13Stadio Comunale Aranova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Boreale30%
×Draw29%
Ardea41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boreale
1.00
Ardea
1.23

Ardea creates 23% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Boreale
0.59
Ardea
1.29

allows per match

Boreale
1.18
Ardea
1.41

finishing

Boreale+0.00on par
Ardea+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boreale ↓

Ardea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Boreale or draw
59%
Boreale or Ardea
71%
Draw or Ardea
70%

Winning margin

Boreale wins by 2+
11%
Ardea wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Boreale 1+ goals
63%
Boreale 2+ goals
26%
Boreale 3+ goals
8%
Ardea 1+ goals
71%
Ardea 2+ goals
35%
Ardea 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Boreale (draw refunded)
42%
Ardea (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boreale at home — creates 0.59, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Ardea away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boreale attack 0.59 + Ardea defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.00

Ardea attack 1.29 + Boreale defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Boreale scores more
30%
level
29%
Ardea scores more
41%

Ardea at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ardea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Boreale vs Ardea

Ardea beat Boreale 3-0 in Serie D - Girone G on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Aranova in Fiumicino.