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Boreale vs Anzio — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Boreale
Boreale
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Anzio
Anzio
1/14/2024Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 19Stadio Comunale Aranova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Boreale32%
×Draw29%
Anzio39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boreale
1.01
Anzio
1.16

Anzio creates 15% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

creates per match

Boreale
0.59
Anzio
1.14

allows per match

Boreale
1.18
Anzio
1.43

finishing

Boreale+0.00on par
Anzio+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boreale ↓

Anzio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Boreale or draw
61%
Boreale or Anzio
71%
Draw or Anzio
68%

Winning margin

Boreale wins by 2+
12%
Anzio wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Boreale 1+ goals
64%
Boreale 2+ goals
27%
Boreale 3+ goals
8%
Anzio 1+ goals
69%
Anzio 2+ goals
32%
Anzio 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Boreale (draw refunded)
45%
Anzio (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boreale at home — creates 0.59, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Anzio away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.43 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boreale attack 0.59 + Anzio defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.01

Anzio attack 1.14 + Boreale defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Boreale scores more
32%
level
29%
Anzio scores more
39%

Anzio at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Anzio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Boreale 0–2 Anzio

Anzio beat Boreale 2-0 in Serie D - Girone G on January 14, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Aranova in Fiumicino.