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Bordj BOU Arreridj vs USM Bel Abbes — Ligue 1 2018

Bordj BOU Arreridj
Bordj BOU Arreridj
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
USM Bel Abbes
USM Bel Abbes
2/8/2020Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 17Stade du 20 Août 1955 (Bordj Bou Arréridj)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Bordj BOU Arreridj51%
×Draw27%
USM Bel Abbes22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bordj BOU Arreridj
1.42
USM Bel Abbes
0.82

Bordj BOU Arreridj creates 73% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 46 away

creates per match

Bordj BOU Arreridj
1.09
USM Bel Abbes
0.61

allows per match

Bordj BOU Arreridj
1.04
USM Bel Abbes
1.74

finishing

Bordj BOU Arreridj+0.00on par
USM Bel Abbes+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bordj BOU Arreridj ↓

USM Bel Abbes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bordj BOU Arreridj or draw
78%
Bordj BOU Arreridj or USM Bel Abbes
73%
Draw or USM Bel Abbes
49%

Winning margin

Bordj BOU Arreridj wins by 2+
25%
USM Bel Abbes wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Bordj BOU Arreridj 1+ goals
76%
Bordj BOU Arreridj 2+ goals
41%
Bordj BOU Arreridj 3+ goals
17%
USM Bel Abbes 1+ goals
56%
USM Bel Abbes 2+ goals
20%
USM Bel Abbes 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Bordj BOU Arreridj (draw refunded)
70%
USM Bel Abbes (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bordj BOU Arreridj at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.04 · 45 matches

USM Bel Abbes away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.74 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bordj BOU Arreridj attack 1.09 + USM Bel Abbes defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.42

USM Bel Abbes attack 0.61 + Bordj BOU Arreridj defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bordj BOU Arreridj scores more
51%
level
27%
USM Bel Abbes scores more
22%

Bordj BOU Arreridj at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bordj BOU Arreridj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bordj BOU Arreridj 2 – 0 USM Bel Abbes

Bordj BOU Arreridj beat USM Bel Abbes 2-0 in Ligue 1 on February 8, 2020.

The match was played at Stade du 20 Août 1955 (Bordj Bou Arréridj).