Bordj BOU Arreridj 0–1 RC Relizane: Result & Stats

Bordj BOU Arreridj

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

RC Relizane

12/18/2020

Ligue 1 · Round 4Stade du 20 Août 1955

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Bordj BOU Arreridj56%

×Draw24%

RC Relizane20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bordj BOU ArreridjExpected goals in this matchRC Relizane

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.92

Bordj BOU Arreridj

1.73

RC Relizane

0.92

Bordj BOU Arreridj creates 88% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 40 away

1.09

creates per match

0.80

1.04

allows per match

2.38

creates per match

Bordj BOU Arreridj

1.09

RC Relizane

0.80

allows per match

Bordj BOU Arreridj

1.04

RC Relizane

2.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bordj BOU Arreridj+0.00on par

RC Relizane+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bordj BOU Arreridj ↓

RC Relizane →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Bordj BOU Arreridj or draw

80%

Bordj BOU Arreridj or RC Relizane

76%

Draw or RC Relizane

44%

Winning margin

Bordj BOU Arreridj wins by 2+

31%

RC Relizane wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Bordj BOU Arreridj 1+ goals

82%

Bordj BOU Arreridj 2+ goals

52%

Bordj BOU Arreridj 3+ goals

25%

RC Relizane 1+ goals

60%

RC Relizane 2+ goals

23%

RC Relizane 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Bordj BOU Arreridj (draw refunded)

74%

RC Relizane (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bordj BOU Arreridj at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.04 · 45 matches

RC Relizane away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.38 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bordj BOU Arreridj attack 1.09 + RC Relizane defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.73

RC Relizane attack 0.80 + Bordj BOU Arreridj defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Bordj BOU Arreridj scores more

56%

level

24%

RC Relizane scores more

20%

Bordj BOU Arreridj at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Bordj BOU Arreridj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff