Bordj BOU Arreridj 2–2 NC Magra: Result & Stats

Bordj BOU Arreridj

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

NC Magra

T. Zeghdane 79'

S. Lachahab 46'

A. Demane 67'

B. Hainikoye 23'

2/13/2021

Ligue 1 · Round 13Stade du 20 Août 1955

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Bordj BOU Arreridj46%

×Draw29%

NC Magra25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bordj BOU ArreridjExpected goals in this matchNC Magra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.86

Bordj BOU Arreridj

1.29

NC Magra

0.86

Bordj BOU Arreridj creates 50% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 92 away

1.09

creates per match

0.68

1.04

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Bordj BOU Arreridj

1.09

NC Magra

0.68

allows per match

Bordj BOU Arreridj

1.04

NC Magra

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bordj BOU Arreridj+0.00on par

NC Magra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bordj BOU Arreridj ↓

NC Magra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Bordj BOU Arreridj or draw

75%

Bordj BOU Arreridj or NC Magra

71%

Draw or NC Magra

54%

Winning margin

Bordj BOU Arreridj wins by 2+

21%

NC Magra wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Bordj BOU Arreridj 1+ goals

72%

Bordj BOU Arreridj 2+ goals

37%

Bordj BOU Arreridj 3+ goals

14%

NC Magra 1+ goals

58%

NC Magra 2+ goals

21%

NC Magra 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Bordj BOU Arreridj (draw refunded)

65%

NC Magra (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bordj BOU Arreridj at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.04 · 45 matches

NC Magra away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.50 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bordj BOU Arreridj attack 1.09 + NC Magra defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.29

NC Magra attack 0.68 + Bordj BOU Arreridj defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bordj BOU Arreridj scores more

46%

level

29%

NC Magra scores more

25%

Bordj BOU Arreridj at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bordj BOU Arreridj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

B. Hainikoye

46'

S. Lachahab

59'

B. Ziani← Y. Belferoum

67'

A. Demane

71'

N. Korichi← B. Bernou

74'

T. Sebie← A. Djelloul Daouadji

74'

H. Zegnoun← H. Rahmani

79'

T. Zeghdane

81'

K. Derbal← A. Demane

83'

A. Berrouche← B. Ziani

88'

N. Righi← H. Bouguèche

Bordj

NC

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: M. Guemache

59'▲B. Ziani←▼Y. Belferoum

74'▲T. Sebie←▼A. Djelloul Daouadji

74'▲H. Zegnoun←▼H. Rahmani

83'▲A. Berrouche←▼B. Ziani

Bordj BOU Arreridj substitutes

ZianiSebieZegnounBerrouche

Manager: H. Merine

71'▲N. Korichi←▼B. Bernou

81'▲K. Derbal←▼A. Demane

88'▲N. Righi←▼H. Bouguèche

NC Magra substitutes

KorichiDerbalRighi