Bordj BOU Arreridj 2–0 JSM Bejaia: Result & Stats

Bordj BOU Arreridj

FT

2 – 0

JSM Bejaia

5/5/2018

League #187 · Round 28Stade du 20 Août 1955 (Bordj Bou Arréridj)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bordj BOU Arreridj62%

×Draw23%

JSM Bejaia15%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bordj BOU ArreridjExpected goals in this matchJSM Bejaia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.72

Bordj BOU Arreridj

1.77

JSM Bejaia

0.72

Bordj BOU Arreridj creates 146% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 30 away

2.00

creates per match

0.77

0.67

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Bordj BOU Arreridj

2.00

JSM Bejaia

0.77

allows per match

Bordj BOU Arreridj

0.67

JSM Bejaia

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bordj BOU Arreridj+0.00on par

JSM Bejaia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bordj BOU Arreridj ↓

JSM Bejaia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bordj BOU Arreridj or draw

85%

Bordj BOU Arreridj or JSM Bejaia

77%

Draw or JSM Bejaia

38%

Winning margin

Bordj BOU Arreridj wins by 2+

36%

JSM Bejaia wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Bordj BOU Arreridj 1+ goals

83%

Bordj BOU Arreridj 2+ goals

53%

Bordj BOU Arreridj 3+ goals

26%

JSM Bejaia 1+ goals

51%

JSM Bejaia 2+ goals

16%

JSM Bejaia 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Bordj BOU Arreridj (draw refunded)

81%

JSM Bejaia (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bordj BOU Arreridj at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

JSM Bejaia away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.53 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bordj BOU Arreridj attack 2.00 + JSM Bejaia defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.77

JSM Bejaia attack 0.77 + Bordj BOU Arreridj defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Bordj BOU Arreridj scores more

62%

level

23%

JSM Bejaia scores more

15%

Bordj BOU Arreridj at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Bordj BOU Arreridj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Bordj

JSM