Bordeaux W 3–1 Stade de Reims W: Result & Stats

Bordeaux W

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Stade de Reims W

1/22/2022

Feminine Division 1 · Round 13Stade Sainte-Germaine

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Bordeaux W50%

×Draw23%

Stade de Reims W27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bordeaux WExpected goals in this matchStade de Reims W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.32

Bordeaux W

1.85

Stade de Reims W

1.32

Bordeaux W creates 40% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 65 away

1.75

creates per match

1.31

1.33

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Bordeaux W

1.75

Stade de Reims W

1.31

allows per match

Bordeaux W

1.33

Stade de Reims W

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bordeaux W+0.00on par

Stade de Reims W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bordeaux W ↓

Stade de Reims W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Bordeaux W or draw

73%

Bordeaux W or Stade de Reims W

77%

Draw or Stade de Reims W

50%

Winning margin

Bordeaux W wins by 2+

28%

Stade de Reims W wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Bordeaux W 1+ goals

84%

Bordeaux W 2+ goals

55%

Bordeaux W 3+ goals

28%

Stade de Reims W 1+ goals

73%

Stade de Reims W 2+ goals

38%

Stade de Reims W 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Bordeaux W (draw refunded)

64%

Stade de Reims W (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bordeaux W at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.33 · 64 matches

Stade de Reims W away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.95 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bordeaux W attack 1.75 + Stade de Reims W defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.85

Stade de Reims W attack 1.31 + Bordeaux W defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Bordeaux W scores more

50%

level

23%

Stade de Reims W scores more

27%

Bordeaux W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Bordeaux W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff