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Bordeaux vs Valenciennes — Ligue 2 2018

Bordeaux
Bordeaux
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Valenciennes
Valenciennes
1/23/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 21Stade Matmut-Atlantique

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Bordeaux53%
×Draw26%
Valenciennes21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bordeaux
1.50
Valenciennes
0.83

Bordeaux creates 81% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 109 away

creates per match

Bordeaux
1.59
Valenciennes
0.90

allows per match

Bordeaux
0.76
Valenciennes
1.41

finishing

Bordeaux+0.00on par
Valenciennes+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bordeaux ↓

Valenciennes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Bordeaux or draw
79%
Bordeaux or Valenciennes
74%
Draw or Valenciennes
47%

Winning margin

Bordeaux wins by 2+
27%
Valenciennes wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Bordeaux 1+ goals
78%
Bordeaux 2+ goals
44%
Bordeaux 3+ goals
19%
Valenciennes 1+ goals
56%
Valenciennes 2+ goals
20%
Valenciennes 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Bordeaux (draw refunded)
72%
Valenciennes (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bordeaux at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.76 · 37 matches

Valenciennes away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.41 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bordeaux attack 1.59 + Valenciennes defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.50

Valenciennes attack 0.90 + Bordeaux defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Bordeaux scores more
53%
level
26%
Valenciennes scores more
21%

Bordeaux at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Bordeaux will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bordeaux vs Valenciennes

Bordeaux beat Valenciennes 3-1 in Ligue 2 on January 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Matmut-Atlantique in Bordeaux.