Bordeaux 2–0 Slavia Praha: Result & Stats

Bordeaux

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Slavia Praha

J. Koundé 90+5'

N. de Préville 49'

11/29/2018

UEFA Europa League · Group Stage - 5Matmut Atlantique

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Bordeaux46%

×Draw25%

Slavia Praha29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BordeauxExpected goals in this matchSlavia Praha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.20

Bordeaux

1.58

Slavia Praha

1.20

Bordeaux creates 32% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 14 away

1.67

creates per match

1.57

0.83

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Bordeaux

1.67

Slavia Praha

1.57

allows per match

Bordeaux

0.83

Slavia Praha

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bordeaux+0.00on par

Slavia Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bordeaux ↓

Slavia Praha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Bordeaux or draw

71%

Bordeaux or Slavia Praha

75%

Draw or Slavia Praha

54%

Winning margin

Bordeaux wins by 2+

24%

Slavia Praha wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Bordeaux 1+ goals

79%

Bordeaux 2+ goals

47%

Bordeaux 3+ goals

21%

Slavia Praha 1+ goals

70%

Slavia Praha 2+ goals

34%

Slavia Praha 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Bordeaux (draw refunded)

61%

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bordeaux at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Slavia Praha away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bordeaux attack 1.67 + Slavia Praha defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.58

Slavia Praha attack 1.57 + Bordeaux defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bordeaux scores more

46%

level

25%

Slavia Praha scores more

29%

Bordeaux at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bordeaux will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

J. Koundé

Bordeaux · D

7.8

Match Events

46'

J. Sýkora← I. Traore

49'

N. de Préville

51'

P. Olayinka← J. Matoušek

52'

Jan Bořil

56'

Simon Deli

59'

Peter Oladeji Olayinka

71'

F. Kamano← N. de Préville

76'

Y. Sankharé← Z. Youssouf

77'

81'

84'

90+5'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BordeauxSlavia

Overview

47%Possession53%

17Total Shots11

3Corners5

12Fouls22

Shots

17Total Shots11

8On Target2

7Off Target8

2Blocked1

8Inside Box6

9Outside Box5

Passing

47%Possession53%

400Total Passes442

321Accurate Passes359

80%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

12Fouls22

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

2Offsides0