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Bordeaux vs Saint Etienne — Ligue 2 2018

Bordeaux
Bordeaux
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Saint Etienne
Saint Etienne
3/4/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 26Stade Matmut-Atlantique

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Bordeaux45%
×Draw27%
Saint Etienne28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bordeaux
1.41
Saint Etienne
1.04

Bordeaux creates 36% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 55 away

creates per match

Bordeaux
1.59
Saint Etienne
1.33

allows per match

Bordeaux
0.76
Saint Etienne
1.22

finishing

Bordeaux+0.00on par
Saint Etienne+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bordeaux ↓

Saint Etienne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bordeaux or draw
72%
Bordeaux or Saint Etienne
73%
Draw or Saint Etienne
55%

Winning margin

Bordeaux wins by 2+
22%
Saint Etienne wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bordeaux 1+ goals
76%
Bordeaux 2+ goals
41%
Bordeaux 3+ goals
17%
Saint Etienne 1+ goals
65%
Saint Etienne 2+ goals
28%
Saint Etienne 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bordeaux (draw refunded)
62%
Saint Etienne (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bordeaux at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.76 · 37 matches

Saint Etienne away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.22 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bordeaux attack 1.59 + Saint Etienne defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.41

Saint Etienne attack 1.33 + Bordeaux defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bordeaux scores more
45%
level
27%
Saint Etienne scores more
28%

Bordeaux at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bordeaux will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Bordeaux 1–1 Saint Etienne

Bordeaux and Saint Etienne drew 1-1 in Ligue 2 on March 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Matmut-Atlantique in Bordeaux.