Bordeaux 3–3 Paris FC: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Bordeaux

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Paris FC

3/30/2024

Ligue 2 · Round 30Stade Matmut-Atlantique

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Bordeaux46%

×Draw28%

Paris FC26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BordeauxExpected goals in this matchParis FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.91

Bordeaux

1.33

Paris FC

0.91

Bordeaux creates 46% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 128 away

1.59

creates per match

1.05

0.76

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Bordeaux

1.59

Paris FC

1.05

allows per match

Bordeaux

0.76

Paris FC

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bordeaux+0.00on par

Paris FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bordeaux ↓

Paris FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Bordeaux or draw

74%

Bordeaux or Paris FC

72%

Draw or Paris FC

54%

Winning margin

Bordeaux wins by 2+

22%

Paris FC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Bordeaux 1+ goals

74%

Bordeaux 2+ goals

38%

Bordeaux 3+ goals

15%

Paris FC 1+ goals

60%

Paris FC 2+ goals

23%

Paris FC 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Bordeaux (draw refunded)

64%

Paris FC (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bordeaux at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.76 · 37 matches

Paris FC away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.08 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bordeaux attack 1.59 + Paris FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.33

Paris FC attack 1.05 + Bordeaux defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bordeaux scores more

46%

level

28%

Paris FC scores more

26%

Bordeaux at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bordeaux will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff