Bordeaux 10–0 Les Jumeaux M'Zouasia: Result & Stats

Bordeaux

10 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Les Jumeaux M'Zouasia

12/19/2021

Coupe de France · Round of 64Stade Matmut-Atlantique

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bordeaux58%

×Draw17%

Les Jumeaux M'Zouasia25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BordeauxExpected goals in this matchLes Jumeaux M'Zouasia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.13

2.08

Bordeaux

3.13

Les Jumeaux M'Zouasia

2.08

Bordeaux creates 50% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

2.25

creates per match

2.67

1.50

allows per match

4.00

creates per match

Bordeaux

2.25

Les Jumeaux M'Zouasia

2.67

allows per match

Bordeaux

1.50

Les Jumeaux M'Zouasia

4.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bordeaux+0.00on par

Les Jumeaux M'Zouasia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over89
Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes83
No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bordeaux ↓

Les Jumeaux M'Zouasia →

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1–02%

1–14%

1–24%

1–33%

1–41%

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4–02%

4–15%

4–25%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–1 (6%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

89%11%3.5

75%25%4.5

58%42%

Double chance

Bordeaux or draw

75%

Bordeaux or Les Jumeaux M'Zouasia

83%

Draw or Les Jumeaux M'Zouasia

42%

Winning margin

Bordeaux wins by 2+

39%

Les Jumeaux M'Zouasia wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Bordeaux 1+ goals

95%

Bordeaux 2+ goals

81%

Bordeaux 3+ goals

59%

Les Jumeaux M'Zouasia 1+ goals

87%

Les Jumeaux M'Zouasia 2+ goals

61%

Les Jumeaux M'Zouasia 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Bordeaux (draw refunded)

70%

Les Jumeaux M'Zouasia (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

80%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Bordeaux at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Les Jumeaux M'Zouasia away — creates 2.67, concedes 4.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Bordeaux attack 2.25 + Les Jumeaux M'Zouasia defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.13

Les Jumeaux M'Zouasia attack 2.67 + Bordeaux defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 58%?"

Bordeaux scores more

58%

level

17%

Les Jumeaux M'Zouasia scores more

25%

Bordeaux at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Bordeaux will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff