Bordeaux 2–3 Bastia: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Bordeaux

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Bastia

J. Livolant 46'

Z. Davitashvili 44'

M. Alfarela 32'

C. Vincent 25', 1'

4/13/2024

Ligue 2 · Round 32Stade Matmut-Atlantique

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Bordeaux50%

×Draw27%

Bastia23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BordeauxExpected goals in this matchBastia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.90

Bordeaux

1.46

Bastia

0.90

Bordeaux creates 62% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 91 away

1.59

creates per match

1.03

0.76

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Bordeaux

1.59

Bastia

1.03

allows per match

Bordeaux

0.76

Bastia

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bordeaux+0.00on par

Bastia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bordeaux ↓

Bastia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Bordeaux or draw

77%

Bordeaux or Bastia

73%

Draw or Bastia

50%

Winning margin

Bordeaux wins by 2+

25%

Bastia wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Bordeaux 1+ goals

77%

Bordeaux 2+ goals

43%

Bordeaux 3+ goals

18%

Bastia 1+ goals

59%

Bastia 2+ goals

23%

Bastia 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Bordeaux (draw refunded)

68%

Bastia (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bordeaux at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.76 · 37 matches

Bastia away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.33 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bordeaux attack 1.59 + Bastia defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.46

Bastia attack 1.03 + Bordeaux defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Bordeaux scores more

50%

level

27%

Bastia scores more

23%

Bordeaux at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Bordeaux will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

Pedro Díaz

Bordeaux · F

8.3

Match Events

1'

C. Vincent↳ F. Bohnert

25'

C. Vincent

32'

M. Alfarela↳ J. Janneh

34'

Danylo Ignatenko

44'

Z. Davitashvili↳ Pedro Díaz

46'

Z. Vipotnik← D. Ihnatenko

46'

C. Michelin← J. Marcelin

46'

M. Angély← Y. Barbet

46'

J. Livolant

52'

B. Santelli← M. Alfarela

70'

J. Vetro← J. Livolant

72'

T. Meynadier← F. Bohnert

72'

M. Siby← C. Vincent

77'

Issiar Drame

83'

Malcom Bokele

84'

F. Tomi← F. Bianchini

85'

G. Charbonnier← J. Janneh

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BordeauxBastia

Overview

77%Possession23%

17Total Shots5

10Corners0

8Fouls14

Shots

17Total Shots5

5On Target4

7Off Target1

5Blocked0

9Inside Box4

8Outside Box1

Passing

77%Possession23%

752Total Passes225

685Accurate Passes157

91%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls14

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2

Ligue 2: Bordeaux 2–3 Bastia

Bastia beat Bordeaux 3-2 in Ligue 2 on April 13, 2024.

Goals: C. Vincent (1', 25'), M. Alfarela (32'), Z. Davitashvili (44'), J. Livolant (46').

Bordeaux controlled possession (77%) and registered 17 shots to 5.

The match was played at Stade Matmut-Atlantique in Bordeaux.

Bordeaux vs Bastia — Ligue 2 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ligue 2: Bordeaux 2–3 Bastia