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Bordeaux vs Annecy — Ligue 2 2018

Bordeaux
Bordeaux
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Annecy
Annecy
10/22/2022Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 13Stade Matmut-Atlantique

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Bordeaux50%
×Draw26%
Annecy25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bordeaux
1.53
Annecy
1.00

Bordeaux creates 53% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 72 away

creates per match

Bordeaux
1.59
Annecy
1.24

allows per match

Bordeaux
0.76
Annecy
1.47

finishing

Bordeaux+0.00on par
Annecy+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bordeaux ↓

Annecy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Bordeaux or draw
75%
Bordeaux or Annecy
74%
Draw or Annecy
50%

Winning margin

Bordeaux wins by 2+
25%
Annecy wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Bordeaux 1+ goals
78%
Bordeaux 2+ goals
45%
Bordeaux 3+ goals
20%
Annecy 1+ goals
63%
Annecy 2+ goals
26%
Annecy 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Bordeaux (draw refunded)
67%
Annecy (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bordeaux at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.76 · 37 matches

Annecy away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.47 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bordeaux attack 1.59 + Annecy defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.53

Annecy attack 1.24 + Bordeaux defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Bordeaux scores more
50%
level
26%
Annecy scores more
25%

Bordeaux at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Bordeaux will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bordeaux vs Annecy

Bordeaux beat Annecy 1-0 in Ligue 2 on October 22, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Matmut-Atlantique in Bordeaux.