Borac Sakule 1–1 Tekstilac Odžaci: Result & Stats

Borac Sakule

FT

1 – 1

Tekstilac Odžaci

5/8/2022

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 26Stadion Sveti Nikola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Borac Sakule38%

×Draw24%

Tekstilac Odžaci38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Borac SakuleExpected goals in this matchTekstilac Odžaci

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.53

Borac Sakule

1.55

Tekstilac Odžaci

1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 29 away

1.86

creates per match

1.90

1.16

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Borac Sakule

1.86

Tekstilac Odžaci

1.90

allows per match

Borac Sakule

1.16

Tekstilac Odžaci

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Borac Sakule+0.00on par

Tekstilac Odžaci+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borac Sakule ↓

Tekstilac Odžaci →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Borac Sakule or draw

62%

Borac Sakule or Tekstilac Odžaci

76%

Draw or Tekstilac Odžaci

62%

Winning margin

Borac Sakule wins by 2+

19%

Tekstilac Odžaci wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Borac Sakule 1+ goals

79%

Borac Sakule 2+ goals

46%

Borac Sakule 3+ goals

20%

Tekstilac Odžaci 1+ goals

78%

Tekstilac Odžaci 2+ goals

45%

Tekstilac Odžaci 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Borac Sakule (draw refunded)

51%

Tekstilac Odžaci (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borac Sakule at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.16 · 43 matches

Tekstilac Odžaci away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.24 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borac Sakule attack 1.86 + Tekstilac Odžaci defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.55

Tekstilac Odžaci attack 1.90 + Borac Sakule defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Borac Sakule scores more

38%

level

24%

Tekstilac Odžaci scores more

38%

Borac Sakule at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Borac Sakule will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff