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Borac Sakule vs Sloboda Novi Kozarci — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Borac Sakule
Borac Sakule
FT
3 – 0
Sloboda Novi Kozarci
Sloboda Novi Kozarci
4/28/2021Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 31Stadion Sveti Nikola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Borac Sakule62%
×Draw21%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borac Sakule
2.06
Sloboda Novi Kozarci
0.97

Borac Sakule creates 112% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 19 away

creates per match

Borac Sakule
1.86
Sloboda Novi Kozarci
0.79

allows per match

Borac Sakule
1.16
Sloboda Novi Kozarci
2.26

finishing

Borac Sakule+0.00on par
Sloboda Novi Kozarci+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borac Sakule ↓

Sloboda Novi Kozarci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Borac Sakule or draw
83%
Borac Sakule or Sloboda Novi Kozarci
79%
Draw or Sloboda Novi Kozarci
38%

Winning margin

Borac Sakule wins by 2+
38%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Borac Sakule 1+ goals
87%
Borac Sakule 2+ goals
61%
Borac Sakule 3+ goals
34%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci 1+ goals
62%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci 2+ goals
25%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Borac Sakule (draw refunded)
79%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borac Sakule at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.16 · 43 matches

Sloboda Novi Kozarci away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borac Sakule attack 1.86 + Sloboda Novi Kozarci defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 2.06

Sloboda Novi Kozarci attack 0.79 + Borac Sakule defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Borac Sakule scores more
62%
level
21%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci scores more
17%

Borac Sakule at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Borac Sakule will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Borac Sakule vs Sloboda Novi Kozarci

Borac Sakule beat Sloboda Novi Kozarci 3-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on April 28, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Sveti Nikola in Sakule.