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Borac Sakule vs Radnički Zrenjanin — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Borac Sakule
Borac Sakule
FT
4 – 0
Radnički Zrenjanin
Radnički Zrenjanin
11/14/2021Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 14Stadion Sveti Nikola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Borac Sakule54%
×Draw23%
Radnički Zrenjanin23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borac Sakule
1.82
Radnički Zrenjanin
1.12

Borac Sakule creates 63% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 87 away

creates per match

Borac Sakule
1.86
Radnički Zrenjanin
1.08

allows per match

Borac Sakule
1.16
Radnički Zrenjanin
1.78

finishing

Borac Sakule+0.00on par
Radnički Zrenjanin+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borac Sakule ↓

Radnički Zrenjanin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Borac Sakule or draw
77%
Borac Sakule or Radnički Zrenjanin
77%
Draw or Radnički Zrenjanin
46%

Winning margin

Borac Sakule wins by 2+
30%
Radnički Zrenjanin wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Borac Sakule 1+ goals
84%
Borac Sakule 2+ goals
54%
Borac Sakule 3+ goals
27%
Radnički Zrenjanin 1+ goals
67%
Radnički Zrenjanin 2+ goals
31%
Radnički Zrenjanin 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Borac Sakule (draw refunded)
70%
Radnički Zrenjanin (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borac Sakule at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.16 · 43 matches

Radnički Zrenjanin away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.78 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borac Sakule attack 1.86 + Radnički Zrenjanin defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.82

Radnički Zrenjanin attack 1.08 + Borac Sakule defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Borac Sakule scores more
54%
level
23%
Radnički Zrenjanin scores more
23%

Borac Sakule at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Borac Sakule will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Borac Sakule 4–0 Radnički Zrenjanin

Borac Sakule beat Radnički Zrenjanin 4-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on November 14, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Sveti Nikola in Sakule.