Borac Sakule 0–1 Mladost Novi Sad: Result & Stats

Borac Sakule

FT

0 – 1

Mladost Novi Sad

11/8/2020

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 16Stadion Sveti Nikola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Borac Sakule35%

×Draw25%

Mladost Novi Sad40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Borac SakuleExpected goals in this matchMladost Novi Sad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.50

Borac Sakule

1.38

Mladost Novi Sad

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 19 away

1.86

creates per match

1.84

1.16

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Borac Sakule

1.86

Mladost Novi Sad

1.84

allows per match

Borac Sakule

1.16

Mladost Novi Sad

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Borac Sakule+0.00on par

Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borac Sakule ↓

Mladost Novi Sad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Borac Sakule or draw

60%

Borac Sakule or Mladost Novi Sad

75%

Draw or Mladost Novi Sad

65%

Winning margin

Borac Sakule wins by 2+

16%

Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Borac Sakule 1+ goals

75%

Borac Sakule 2+ goals

40%

Borac Sakule 3+ goals

16%

Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals

78%

Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals

44%

Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Borac Sakule (draw refunded)

46%

Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borac Sakule at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.16 · 43 matches

Mladost Novi Sad away — creates 1.84, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borac Sakule attack 1.86 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.38

Mladost Novi Sad attack 1.84 + Borac Sakule defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Borac Sakule scores more

35%

level

25%

Mladost Novi Sad scores more

40%

Mladost Novi Sad at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mladost Novi Sad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff