Borac Sakule 3–0 Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

Borac Sakule

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

3/27/2022

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 19Stadion Sveti Nikola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Borac Sakule54%

×Draw23%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Borac SakuleExpected goals in this matchJedinstvo Stara Pazova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.09

Borac Sakule

1.82

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

1.09

Borac Sakule creates 67% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 78 away

1.86

creates per match

1.03

1.16

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Borac Sakule

1.86

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

1.03

allows per match

Borac Sakule

1.16

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Borac Sakule+0.00on par

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borac Sakule ↓

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Borac Sakule or draw

77%

Borac Sakule or Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

77%

Draw or Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

46%

Winning margin

Borac Sakule wins by 2+

31%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Borac Sakule 1+ goals

84%

Borac Sakule 2+ goals

54%

Borac Sakule 3+ goals

27%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 1+ goals

66%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 2+ goals

30%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Borac Sakule (draw refunded)

71%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borac Sakule at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.16 · 43 matches

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.78 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borac Sakule attack 1.86 + Jedinstvo Stara Pazova defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.82

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova attack 1.03 + Borac Sakule defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Borac Sakule scores more

54%

level

23%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova scores more

23%

Borac Sakule at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Borac Sakule will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff