Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Borac Sakule vs Bratstvo Prigrevica — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Borac Sakule
Borac Sakule
FT
3 – 1
Bratstvo Prigrevica
Bratstvo Prigrevica
5/23/2021Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 36Stadion Sveti Nikola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Borac Sakule46%
×Draw26%
Bratstvo Prigrevica28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borac Sakule
1.48
Bratstvo Prigrevica
1.10

Borac Sakule creates 35% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 42 away

creates per match

Borac Sakule
1.86
Bratstvo Prigrevica
1.05

allows per match

Borac Sakule
1.16
Bratstvo Prigrevica
1.10

finishing

Borac Sakule+0.00on par
Bratstvo Prigrevica+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borac Sakule ↓

Bratstvo Prigrevica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Borac Sakule or draw
72%
Borac Sakule or Bratstvo Prigrevica
74%
Draw or Bratstvo Prigrevica
54%

Winning margin

Borac Sakule wins by 2+
23%
Bratstvo Prigrevica wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Borac Sakule 1+ goals
77%
Borac Sakule 2+ goals
43%
Borac Sakule 3+ goals
19%
Bratstvo Prigrevica 1+ goals
67%
Bratstvo Prigrevica 2+ goals
30%
Bratstvo Prigrevica 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Borac Sakule (draw refunded)
62%
Bratstvo Prigrevica (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borac Sakule at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.16 · 43 matches

Bratstvo Prigrevica away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.10 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borac Sakule attack 1.86 + Bratstvo Prigrevica defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.48

Bratstvo Prigrevica attack 1.05 + Borac Sakule defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Borac Sakule scores more
46%
level
26%
Bratstvo Prigrevica scores more
28%

Borac Sakule at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Borac Sakule will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Borac Sakule 3–1 Bratstvo Prigrevica

Borac Sakule beat Bratstvo Prigrevica 3-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on May 23, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Sveti Nikola in Sakule.