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Borac Sakule vs Borac Šajkaš — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Borac Sakule
Borac Sakule
FT
2 – 2
Borac Šajkaš
Borac Šajkaš
8/29/2021Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 3Stadion Sveti Nikola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Borac Sakule53%
×Draw24%
Borac Šajkaš23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borac Sakule
1.72
Borac Šajkaš
1.04

Borac Sakule creates 65% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 60 away

creates per match

Borac Sakule
1.86
Borac Šajkaš
0.93

allows per match

Borac Sakule
1.16
Borac Šajkaš
1.57

finishing

Borac Sakule+0.00on par
Borac Šajkaš+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borac Sakule ↓

Borac Šajkaš →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Borac Sakule or draw
77%
Borac Sakule or Borac Šajkaš
76%
Draw or Borac Šajkaš
47%

Winning margin

Borac Sakule wins by 2+
29%
Borac Šajkaš wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Borac Sakule 1+ goals
82%
Borac Sakule 2+ goals
51%
Borac Sakule 3+ goals
25%
Borac Šajkaš 1+ goals
65%
Borac Šajkaš 2+ goals
28%
Borac Šajkaš 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Borac Sakule (draw refunded)
70%
Borac Šajkaš (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borac Sakule at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.16 · 43 matches

Borac Šajkaš away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.57 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borac Sakule attack 1.86 + Borac Šajkaš defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.72

Borac Šajkaš attack 0.93 + Borac Sakule defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Borac Sakule scores more
53%
level
24%
Borac Šajkaš scores more
23%

Borac Sakule at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Borac Sakule will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Borac Sakule vs Borac Šajkaš

Borac Sakule and Borac Šajkaš drew 2-2 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on August 29, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Sveti Nikola in Sakule.