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Borac Sakule vs 1. Maj Ruma — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Borac Sakule
Borac Sakule
FT
2 – 1
1. Maj Ruma
1. Maj Ruma
10/18/2020Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 13Stadion Sveti Nikola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Borac Sakule53%
×Draw23%
1. Maj Ruma24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borac Sakule
1.79
1. Maj Ruma
1.11

Borac Sakule creates 61% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 72 away

creates per match

Borac Sakule
1.86
1. Maj Ruma
1.06

allows per match

Borac Sakule
1.16
1. Maj Ruma
1.72

finishing

Borac Sakule+0.00on par
1. Maj Ruma+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borac Sakule ↓

1. Maj Ruma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Borac Sakule or draw
76%
Borac Sakule or 1. Maj Ruma
77%
Draw or 1. Maj Ruma
47%

Winning margin

Borac Sakule wins by 2+
30%
1. Maj Ruma wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Borac Sakule 1+ goals
83%
Borac Sakule 2+ goals
53%
Borac Sakule 3+ goals
26%
1. Maj Ruma 1+ goals
67%
1. Maj Ruma 2+ goals
30%
1. Maj Ruma 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Borac Sakule (draw refunded)
69%
1. Maj Ruma (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borac Sakule at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.16 · 43 matches

1. Maj Ruma away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.72 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borac Sakule attack 1.86 + 1. Maj Ruma defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.79

1. Maj Ruma attack 1.06 + Borac Sakule defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Borac Sakule scores more
53%
level
23%
1. Maj Ruma scores more
24%

Borac Sakule at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Borac Sakule will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Borac Sakule vs 1. Maj Ruma

Borac Sakule beat 1. Maj Ruma 2-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on October 18, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Sveti Nikola in Sakule.