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Borac Šajkaš vs Stari Grad — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Borac Šajkaš
Borac Šajkaš
FT
6 – 0
Stari Grad
Stari Grad
6/4/2022Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 30Stadion Borac Šajkaš

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Borac Šajkaš53%
×Draw24%
Stari Grad24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borac Šajkaš
1.73
Stari Grad
1.08

Borac Šajkaš creates 60% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 34 away

creates per match

Borac Šajkaš
1.51
Stari Grad
1.09

allows per match

Borac Šajkaš
1.08
Stari Grad
1.94

finishing

Borac Šajkaš+0.00on par
Stari Grad+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borac Šajkaš ↓

Stari Grad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Borac Šajkaš or draw
76%
Borac Šajkaš or Stari Grad
76%
Draw or Stari Grad
47%

Winning margin

Borac Šajkaš wins by 2+
29%
Stari Grad wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Borac Šajkaš 1+ goals
82%
Borac Šajkaš 2+ goals
52%
Borac Šajkaš 3+ goals
25%
Stari Grad 1+ goals
66%
Stari Grad 2+ goals
29%
Stari Grad 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Borac Šajkaš (draw refunded)
69%
Stari Grad (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borac Šajkaš at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.08 · 59 matches

Stari Grad away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.94 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borac Šajkaš attack 1.51 + Stari Grad defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.73

Stari Grad attack 1.09 + Borac Šajkaš defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Borac Šajkaš scores more
53%
level
24%
Stari Grad scores more
24%

Borac Šajkaš at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Borac Šajkaš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Borac Šajkaš vs Stari Grad

Borac Šajkaš beat Stari Grad 6-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on June 4, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Borac Šajkaš in Šajkaš.