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Borac Šajkaš vs RFK Novi Sad — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Borac Šajkaš
Borac Šajkaš
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
RFK Novi Sad
RFK Novi Sad
4/27/2025Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 24Stadion Borac Šajkaš

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Borac Šajkaš52%
×Draw24%
RFK Novi Sad24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borac Šajkaš
1.72
RFK Novi Sad
1.08

Borac Šajkaš creates 59% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 15 away

creates per match

Borac Šajkaš
1.51
RFK Novi Sad
1.07

allows per match

Borac Šajkaš
1.08
RFK Novi Sad
1.93

finishing

Borac Šajkaš+0.00on par
RFK Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borac Šajkaš ↓

RFK Novi Sad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Borac Šajkaš or draw
76%
Borac Šajkaš or RFK Novi Sad
76%
Draw or RFK Novi Sad
48%

Winning margin

Borac Šajkaš wins by 2+
29%
RFK Novi Sad wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Borac Šajkaš 1+ goals
82%
Borac Šajkaš 2+ goals
51%
Borac Šajkaš 3+ goals
25%
RFK Novi Sad 1+ goals
66%
RFK Novi Sad 2+ goals
29%
RFK Novi Sad 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Borac Šajkaš (draw refunded)
69%
RFK Novi Sad (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borac Šajkaš at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.08 · 59 matches

RFK Novi Sad away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borac Šajkaš attack 1.51 + RFK Novi Sad defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.72

RFK Novi Sad attack 1.07 + Borac Šajkaš defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Borac Šajkaš scores more
52%
level
24%
RFK Novi Sad scores more
24%

Borac Šajkaš at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Borac Šajkaš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Borac Šajkaš vs RFK Novi Sad

RFK Novi Sad beat Borac Šajkaš 4-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on April 27, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Borac Šajkaš in Šajkaš.