Borac Šajkaš 4–0 Radnički Zrenjanin: Result & Stats

Borac Šajkaš

FT

4 – 0

Radnički Zrenjanin

5/14/2023

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 26Stadion Borac Šajkaš

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Borac Šajkaš51%

×Draw25%

Radnički Zrenjanin25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Borac ŠajkašExpected goals in this matchRadnički Zrenjanin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.08

Borac Šajkaš

1.65

Radnički Zrenjanin

1.08

Borac Šajkaš creates 53% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 87 away

1.51

creates per match

1.08

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Borac Šajkaš

1.51

Radnički Zrenjanin

1.08

allows per match

Borac Šajkaš

1.08

Radnički Zrenjanin

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Borac Šajkaš+0.00on par

Radnički Zrenjanin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borac Šajkaš ↓

Radnički Zrenjanin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Borac Šajkaš or draw

75%

Borac Šajkaš or Radnički Zrenjanin

75%

Draw or Radnički Zrenjanin

49%

Winning margin

Borac Šajkaš wins by 2+

27%

Radnički Zrenjanin wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Borac Šajkaš 1+ goals

81%

Borac Šajkaš 2+ goals

49%

Borac Šajkaš 3+ goals

23%

Radnički Zrenjanin 1+ goals

66%

Radnički Zrenjanin 2+ goals

29%

Radnički Zrenjanin 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Borac Šajkaš (draw refunded)

67%

Radnički Zrenjanin (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borac Šajkaš at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.08 · 59 matches

Radnički Zrenjanin away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.78 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borac Šajkaš attack 1.51 + Radnički Zrenjanin defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.65

Radnički Zrenjanin attack 1.08 + Borac Šajkaš defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Borac Šajkaš scores more

51%

level

25%

Radnički Zrenjanin scores more

25%

Borac Šajkaš at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Borac Šajkaš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff