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Borac Šajkaš vs OFK Vrbas — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Borac Šajkaš
Borac Šajkaš
FT
0 – 0
OFK Vrbas
OFK Vrbas
9/29/2024Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 7Stadion Borac Šajkaš

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Borac Šajkaš48%
×Draw25%
OFK Vrbas27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borac Šajkaš
1.56
OFK Vrbas
1.10

Borac Šajkaš creates 42% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 30 away

creates per match

Borac Šajkaš
1.51
OFK Vrbas
1.13

allows per match

Borac Šajkaš
1.08
OFK Vrbas
1.60

finishing

Borac Šajkaš+0.00on par
OFK Vrbas+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borac Šajkaš ↓

OFK Vrbas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Borac Šajkaš or draw
73%
Borac Šajkaš or OFK Vrbas
75%
Draw or OFK Vrbas
52%

Winning margin

Borac Šajkaš wins by 2+
25%
OFK Vrbas wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Borac Šajkaš 1+ goals
79%
Borac Šajkaš 2+ goals
46%
Borac Šajkaš 3+ goals
21%
OFK Vrbas 1+ goals
67%
OFK Vrbas 2+ goals
30%
OFK Vrbas 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Borac Šajkaš (draw refunded)
64%
OFK Vrbas (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borac Šajkaš at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.08 · 59 matches

OFK Vrbas away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.60 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borac Šajkaš attack 1.51 + OFK Vrbas defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.56

OFK Vrbas attack 1.13 + Borac Šajkaš defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Borac Šajkaš scores more
48%
level
25%
OFK Vrbas scores more
27%

Borac Šajkaš at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Borac Šajkaš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Borac Šajkaš 0–0 OFK Vrbas

Borac Šajkaš and OFK Vrbas drew 0-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on September 29, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Borac Šajkaš in Šajkaš.