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Borac Šajkaš vs Bratstvo Prigrevica — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Borac Šajkaš
Borac Šajkaš
FT
1 – 0
Bratstvo Prigrevica
Bratstvo Prigrevica
10/17/2021Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 10Stadion Borac Šajkaš

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Borac Šajkaš42%
×Draw28%
Bratstvo Prigrevica30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borac Šajkaš
1.31
Bratstvo Prigrevica
1.06

Borac Šajkaš creates 24% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 42 away

creates per match

Borac Šajkaš
1.51
Bratstvo Prigrevica
1.05

allows per match

Borac Šajkaš
1.08
Bratstvo Prigrevica
1.10

finishing

Borac Šajkaš+0.00on par
Bratstvo Prigrevica+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borac Šajkaš ↓

Bratstvo Prigrevica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Borac Šajkaš or draw
70%
Borac Šajkaš or Bratstvo Prigrevica
72%
Draw or Bratstvo Prigrevica
58%

Winning margin

Borac Šajkaš wins by 2+
19%
Bratstvo Prigrevica wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Borac Šajkaš 1+ goals
73%
Borac Šajkaš 2+ goals
38%
Borac Šajkaš 3+ goals
14%
Bratstvo Prigrevica 1+ goals
65%
Bratstvo Prigrevica 2+ goals
29%
Bratstvo Prigrevica 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Borac Šajkaš (draw refunded)
58%
Bratstvo Prigrevica (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borac Šajkaš at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.08 · 59 matches

Bratstvo Prigrevica away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.10 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borac Šajkaš attack 1.51 + Bratstvo Prigrevica defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.31

Bratstvo Prigrevica attack 1.05 + Borac Šajkaš defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Borac Šajkaš scores more
42%
level
28%
Bratstvo Prigrevica scores more
30%

Borac Šajkaš at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Borac Šajkaš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Borac Šajkaš 1–0 Bratstvo Prigrevica

Borac Šajkaš beat Bratstvo Prigrevica 1-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on October 17, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Borac Šajkaš in Šajkaš.