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Borac Kozarska Dubica vs Radnik Bijeljina — 1st League - RS 2019

Borac Kozarska Dubica
Borac Kozarska Dubica
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Radnik Bijeljina
Radnik Bijeljina
9/2/20231st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 4Stadion Đolovi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Borac Kozarska Dubica36%
×Draw28%
Radnik Bijeljina37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borac Kozarska Dubica
1.18
Radnik Bijeljina
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 64 home / 34 away

creates per match

Borac Kozarska Dubica
1.23
Radnik Bijeljina
1.09

allows per match

Borac Kozarska Dubica
1.30
Radnik Bijeljina
1.12

finishing

Borac Kozarska Dubica+0.00on par
Radnik Bijeljina+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borac Kozarska Dubica ↓

Radnik Bijeljina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Borac Kozarska Dubica or draw
63%
Borac Kozarska Dubica or Radnik Bijeljina
72%
Draw or Radnik Bijeljina
64%

Winning margin

Borac Kozarska Dubica wins by 2+
15%
Radnik Bijeljina wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Borac Kozarska Dubica 1+ goals
69%
Borac Kozarska Dubica 2+ goals
33%
Borac Kozarska Dubica 3+ goals
12%
Radnik Bijeljina 1+ goals
70%
Radnik Bijeljina 2+ goals
34%
Radnik Bijeljina 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Borac Kozarska Dubica (draw refunded)
49%
Radnik Bijeljina (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borac Kozarska Dubica at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.30 · 64 matches

Radnik Bijeljina away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borac Kozarska Dubica attack 1.23 + Radnik Bijeljina defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.18

Radnik Bijeljina attack 1.09 + Borac Kozarska Dubica defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Borac Kozarska Dubica scores more
36%
level
28%
Radnik Bijeljina scores more
37%

Radnik Bijeljina at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Radnik Bijeljina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Borac Kozarska Dubica vs Radnik Bijeljina

Radnik Bijeljina beat Borac Kozarska Dubica 3-0 in 1st League - RS on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Đolovi in Kozarska Dubica.