Borac Kozarska Dubica 0–1 Krupa na Vrbasu

Borac Kozarska Dubica

FT

0 – 1

Krupa na Vrbasu

8/14/2021

1st League - RS · RS - 1Stadion Đolovi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Borac Kozarska Dubica23%

×Draw26%

Krupa na Vrbasu51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Borac Kozarska DubicaExpected goals in this matchKrupa na Vrbasu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

1.54

Borac Kozarska Dubica

0.94

Krupa na Vrbasu

1.54

Krupa na Vrbasu creates 64% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 39 away

1.23

creates per match

1.79

1.30

allows per match

0.64

creates per match

Borac Kozarska Dubica

1.23

Krupa na Vrbasu

1.79

allows per match

Borac Kozarska Dubica

1.30

Krupa na Vrbasu

0.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Borac Kozarska Dubica+0.00on par

Krupa na Vrbasu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borac Kozarska Dubica ↓

Krupa na Vrbasu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–113%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Borac Kozarska Dubica or draw

49%

Borac Kozarska Dubica or Krupa na Vrbasu

74%

Draw or Krupa na Vrbasu

77%

Winning margin

Borac Kozarska Dubica wins by 2+

8%

Krupa na Vrbasu wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Borac Kozarska Dubica 1+ goals

61%

Borac Kozarska Dubica 2+ goals

24%

Borac Kozarska Dubica 3+ goals

7%

Krupa na Vrbasu 1+ goals

79%

Krupa na Vrbasu 2+ goals

45%

Krupa na Vrbasu 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Borac Kozarska Dubica (draw refunded)

31%

Krupa na Vrbasu (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borac Kozarska Dubica at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.30 · 64 matches

Krupa na Vrbasu away — creates 1.79, concedes 0.64 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borac Kozarska Dubica attack 1.23 + Krupa na Vrbasu defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.94

Krupa na Vrbasu attack 1.79 + Borac Kozarska Dubica defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Borac Kozarska Dubica scores more

23%

level

26%

Krupa na Vrbasu scores more

51%

Krupa na Vrbasu at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Krupa na Vrbasu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff