Borac Kozarska Dubica 1–2 Famos Vojkovići

Borac Kozarska Dubica

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Famos Vojkovići

11/25/2023

1st League - RS · RS - 17Stadion Đolovi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Borac Kozarska Dubica50%

×Draw25%

Famos Vojkovići24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Borac Kozarska DubicaExpected goals in this matchFamos Vojkovići

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.02

Borac Kozarska Dubica

1.58

Famos Vojkovići

1.02

Borac Kozarska Dubica creates 55% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 66 away

1.23

creates per match

0.73

1.30

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Borac Kozarska Dubica

1.23

Famos Vojkovići

0.73

allows per match

Borac Kozarska Dubica

1.30

Famos Vojkovići

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Borac Kozarska Dubica+0.00on par

Famos Vojkovići+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borac Kozarska Dubica ↓

Famos Vojkovići →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Borac Kozarska Dubica or draw

76%

Borac Kozarska Dubica or Famos Vojkovići

75%

Draw or Famos Vojkovići

50%

Winning margin

Borac Kozarska Dubica wins by 2+

26%

Famos Vojkovići wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Borac Kozarska Dubica 1+ goals

79%

Borac Kozarska Dubica 2+ goals

47%

Borac Kozarska Dubica 3+ goals

21%

Famos Vojkovići 1+ goals

64%

Famos Vojkovići 2+ goals

27%

Famos Vojkovići 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Borac Kozarska Dubica (draw refunded)

67%

Famos Vojkovići (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borac Kozarska Dubica at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.30 · 64 matches

Famos Vojkovići away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.94 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borac Kozarska Dubica attack 1.23 + Famos Vojkovići defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.58

Famos Vojkovići attack 0.73 + Borac Kozarska Dubica defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Borac Kozarska Dubica scores more

50%

level

25%

Famos Vojkovići scores more

24%

Borac Kozarska Dubica at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Borac Kozarska Dubica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff