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Borac Kozarska Dubica vs Budućnost Pilica — 1st League - RS 2019

Borac Kozarska Dubica
Borac Kozarska Dubica
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Budućnost Pilica
Budućnost Pilica
5/14/20221st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 28Stadion Đolovi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Borac Kozarska Dubica72%
×Draw17%
Budućnost Pilica11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borac Kozarska Dubica
2.45
Budućnost Pilica
0.85

Borac Kozarska Dubica creates 188% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 15 away

creates per match

Borac Kozarska Dubica
1.23
Budućnost Pilica
0.40

allows per match

Borac Kozarska Dubica
1.30
Budućnost Pilica
3.67

finishing

Borac Kozarska Dubica+0.00on par
Budućnost Pilica+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borac Kozarska Dubica ↓

Budućnost Pilica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Borac Kozarska Dubica or draw
89%
Borac Kozarska Dubica or Budućnost Pilica
83%
Draw or Budućnost Pilica
28%

Winning margin

Borac Kozarska Dubica wins by 2+
50%
Budućnost Pilica wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Borac Kozarska Dubica 1+ goals
91%
Borac Kozarska Dubica 2+ goals
70%
Borac Kozarska Dubica 3+ goals
44%
Budućnost Pilica 1+ goals
57%
Budućnost Pilica 2+ goals
21%
Budućnost Pilica 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Borac Kozarska Dubica (draw refunded)
87%
Budućnost Pilica (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borac Kozarska Dubica at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.30 · 64 matches

Budućnost Pilica away — creates 0.40, concedes 3.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borac Kozarska Dubica attack 1.23 + Budućnost Pilica defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.45

Budućnost Pilica attack 0.40 + Borac Kozarska Dubica defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Borac Kozarska Dubica scores more
72%
level
17%
Budućnost Pilica scores more
11%

Borac Kozarska Dubica at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Borac Kozarska Dubica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - RS: Borac Kozarska Dubica 2–0 Budućnost Pilica

Borac Kozarska Dubica beat Budućnost Pilica 2-0 in 1st League - RS on May 14, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Đolovi in Kozarska Dubica.