Borac Banja Luka 1–0 Velež: Result & Stats

Borac Banja Luka

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Velež

10/19/2025

Premijer Liga · Round 11Gradski stadion Banja Luka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Borac Banja Luka55%

×Draw25%

Velež20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Borac Banja LukaExpected goals in this matchVelež

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.85

Borac Banja Luka

1.59

Velež

0.85

Borac Banja Luka creates 87% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 111 away

2.02

creates per match

1.07

0.63

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Borac Banja Luka

2.02

Velež

1.07

allows per match

Borac Banja Luka

0.63

Velež

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Borac Banja Luka+0.00on par

Velež+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borac Banja Luka ↓

Velež →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Borac Banja Luka or draw

80%

Borac Banja Luka or Velež

75%

Draw or Velež

45%

Winning margin

Borac Banja Luka wins by 2+

29%

Velež wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Borac Banja Luka 1+ goals

80%

Borac Banja Luka 2+ goals

47%

Borac Banja Luka 3+ goals

21%

Velež 1+ goals

57%

Velež 2+ goals

21%

Velež 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Borac Banja Luka (draw refunded)

73%

Velež (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borac Banja Luka at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.63 · 114 matches

Velež away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.16 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borac Banja Luka attack 2.02 + Velež defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.59

Velež attack 1.07 + Borac Banja Luka defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Borac Banja Luka scores more

55%

level

25%

Velež scores more

20%

Borac Banja Luka at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Borac Banja Luka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff