Borac Banja Luka 0–0 Linfield: Result & Stats

Borac Banja Luka

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Linfield

7/29/2021

UEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundGradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Borac Banja Luka47%

×Draw29%

Linfield24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Borac Banja LukaExpected goals in this matchLinfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.85

Borac Banja Luka

1.30

Linfield

0.85

Borac Banja Luka creates 53% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

1.00

creates per match

0.70

1.00

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Borac Banja Luka

1.00

Linfield

0.70

allows per match

Borac Banja Luka

1.00

Linfield

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Borac Banja Luka+0.00on par

Linfield+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borac Banja Luka ↓

Linfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Borac Banja Luka or draw

76%

Borac Banja Luka or Linfield

71%

Draw or Linfield

53%

Winning margin

Borac Banja Luka wins by 2+

22%

Linfield wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Borac Banja Luka 1+ goals

73%

Borac Banja Luka 2+ goals

37%

Borac Banja Luka 3+ goals

14%

Linfield 1+ goals

57%

Linfield 2+ goals

21%

Linfield 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Borac Banja Luka (draw refunded)

66%

Linfield (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borac Banja Luka at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Linfield away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borac Banja Luka attack 1.00 + Linfield defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.30

Linfield attack 0.70 + Borac Banja Luka defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Borac Banja Luka scores more

47%

level

29%

Linfield scores more

24%

Borac Banja Luka at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Borac Banja Luka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff