Borac Banja Luka 2–1 Lask Linz: Result & Stats

Borac Banja Luka

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Lask Linz

D. Skorup 89'

Đ. Despotović 82'

V. Berisha 51'

11/28/2024

UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 4Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Borac Banja Luka46%

×Draw26%

Lask Linz28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Borac Banja LukaExpected goals in this matchLask Linz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.06

Borac Banja Luka

1.44

Lask Linz

1.06

Borac Banja Luka creates 36% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

1.20

creates per match

1.22

0.90

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Borac Banja Luka

1.20

Lask Linz

1.22

allows per match

Borac Banja Luka

0.90

Lask Linz

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Borac Banja Luka+0.00on par

Lask Linz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borac Banja Luka ↓

Lask Linz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Borac Banja Luka or draw

72%

Borac Banja Luka or Lask Linz

74%

Draw or Lask Linz

54%

Winning margin

Borac Banja Luka wins by 2+

22%

Lask Linz wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Borac Banja Luka 1+ goals

76%

Borac Banja Luka 2+ goals

42%

Borac Banja Luka 3+ goals

18%

Lask Linz 1+ goals

65%

Lask Linz 2+ goals

29%

Lask Linz 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Borac Banja Luka (draw refunded)

62%

Lask Linz (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borac Banja Luka at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

Lask Linz away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borac Banja Luka attack 1.20 + Lask Linz defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.44

Lask Linz attack 1.22 + Borac Banja Luka defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Borac Banja Luka scores more

46%

level

26%

Lask Linz scores more

28%

Borac Banja Luka at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Borac Banja Luka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

S. Herrera

Borac Banja Luka · D

8.5

Match Events

3'

Marko Vukčević

7'

Jörg Siebenhandl

9'

L. Jungwirth← M. Bogarde

16'

Maksym Talovierov

43'

Florian Flecker

51'

V. Berisha↳ F. Stojković

52'

Bart Meijers

53'

George Bello

58'

N. Srećković← D. Čavić

58'

D. Hrelja← B. Nikolov

58'

Z. Kvržić← M. Vukčević

69'

Lukas Jungwirth

69'

Filip Stojković

69'

S. Vranješ← S. Grahovac

74'

M. Entrup← V. Berisha

77'

Maximilian Entrup

80'

D. Skorup← S. Ogrinec

82'

Đ. Despotović↳ Z. Kvržić

83'

Đorđe Despotović

85'

B. Jovičić← R. Žulj

85'

A. Taoui← M. Ljubičić

89'

D. Skorup

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BoracLask

Overview

63%Possession37%

20Total Shots4

0.99Expected Goals (xG)0.43

7Corners2

11Fouls11

Shots

20Total Shots4

8On Target2

7Off Target2

5Blocked0

13Inside Box3

7Outside Box1

Passing

63%Possession37%

491Total Passes304

424Accurate Passes232

86%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

-1.05Goals Prevented-1.05

Discipline

11Fouls11

3Yellow Cards6

0Red Cards1

5Offsides3