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Borac Banja Luka vs Krupa na Vrbasu — Premijer Liga 2019

Borac Banja Luka
Borac Banja Luka
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Krupa na Vrbasu
Krupa na Vrbasu
8/31/2020Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 6Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Borac Banja Luka68%
×Draw21%
Krupa na Vrbasu10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borac Banja Luka
1.83
Krupa na Vrbasu
0.55

Borac Banja Luka creates 233% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 17 away

creates per match

Borac Banja Luka
2.02
Krupa na Vrbasu
0.47

allows per match

Borac Banja Luka
0.63
Krupa na Vrbasu
1.65

finishing

Borac Banja Luka+0.00on par
Krupa na Vrbasu+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borac Banja Luka ↓

Krupa na Vrbasu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–19%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Borac Banja Luka or draw
90%
Borac Banja Luka or Krupa na Vrbasu
79%
Draw or Krupa na Vrbasu
32%

Winning margin

Borac Banja Luka wins by 2+
41%
Krupa na Vrbasu wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Borac Banja Luka 1+ goals
84%
Borac Banja Luka 2+ goals
54%
Borac Banja Luka 3+ goals
28%
Krupa na Vrbasu 1+ goals
42%
Krupa na Vrbasu 2+ goals
11%
Krupa na Vrbasu 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Borac Banja Luka (draw refunded)
87%
Krupa na Vrbasu (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borac Banja Luka at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.63 · 114 matches

Krupa na Vrbasu away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borac Banja Luka attack 2.02 + Krupa na Vrbasu defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.83

Krupa na Vrbasu attack 0.47 + Borac Banja Luka defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Borac Banja Luka scores more
68%
level
21%
Krupa na Vrbasu scores more
10%

Borac Banja Luka at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Borac Banja Luka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premijer Liga: Borac Banja Luka 3–1 Krupa na Vrbasu

Borac Banja Luka beat Krupa na Vrbasu 3-1 in Premijer Liga on August 31, 2020.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Banja Luka.