Bonyhád Völgység 3–0 Főnix: Result & Stats

Bonyhád Völgység

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Főnix

11/17/2024

NB III - Southwest · Southwest - 16Sport úti Pálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Bonyhád Völgység59%

×Draw19%

Főnix22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bonyhád VölgységExpected goals in this matchFőnix

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

1.50

Bonyhád Völgység

2.50

Főnix

1.50

Bonyhád Völgység creates 67% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.40

creates per match

1.40

1.60

allows per match

3.60

creates per match

Bonyhád Völgység

1.40

Főnix

1.40

allows per match

Bonyhád Völgység

1.60

Főnix

3.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bonyhád Völgység+0.00on par

Főnix+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bonyhád Völgység ↓

Főnix →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Bonyhád Völgység or draw

78%

Bonyhád Völgység or Főnix

81%

Draw or Főnix

41%

Winning margin

Bonyhád Völgység wins by 2+

38%

Főnix wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Bonyhád Völgység 1+ goals

92%

Bonyhád Völgység 2+ goals

71%

Bonyhád Völgység 3+ goals

45%

Főnix 1+ goals

78%

Főnix 2+ goals

44%

Főnix 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Bonyhád Völgység (draw refunded)

73%

Főnix (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bonyhád Völgység at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

Főnix away — creates 1.40, concedes 3.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bonyhád Völgység attack 1.40 + Főnix defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 2.50

Főnix attack 1.40 + Bonyhád Völgység defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Bonyhád Völgység scores more

59%

level

19%

Főnix scores more

22%

Bonyhád Völgység at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Bonyhád Völgység will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff