Bonyhád Völgység 6–0 Dunaföldvár: Result & Stats

Bonyhád Völgység

FT

6 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Dunaföldvár

5/18/2025

NB III - Southwest · Southwest - 29Sport úti Pálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Bonyhád Völgység56%

×Draw20%

Dunaföldvár24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bonyhád VölgységExpected goals in this matchDunaföldvár

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.42

Bonyhád Völgység

2.25

Dunaföldvár

1.42

Bonyhád Völgység creates 58% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

1.40

creates per match

1.23

1.60

allows per match

3.10

creates per match

Bonyhád Völgység

1.40

Dunaföldvár

1.23

allows per match

Bonyhád Völgység

1.60

Dunaföldvár

3.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bonyhád Völgység+0.00on par

Dunaföldvár+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bonyhád Völgység ↓

Dunaföldvár →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Bonyhád Völgység or draw

76%

Bonyhád Völgység or Dunaföldvár

80%

Draw or Dunaföldvár

44%

Winning margin

Bonyhád Völgység wins by 2+

34%

Dunaföldvár wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Bonyhád Völgység 1+ goals

89%

Bonyhád Völgység 2+ goals

65%

Bonyhád Völgység 3+ goals

39%

Dunaföldvár 1+ goals

76%

Dunaföldvár 2+ goals

41%

Dunaföldvár 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Bonyhád Völgység (draw refunded)

70%

Dunaföldvár (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bonyhád Völgység at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

Dunaföldvár away — creates 1.23, concedes 3.10 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bonyhád Völgység attack 1.40 + Dunaföldvár defence 3.10 → ÷2 → 2.25

Dunaföldvár attack 1.23 + Bonyhád Völgység defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Bonyhád Völgység scores more

56%

level

20%

Dunaföldvár scores more

24%

Bonyhád Völgység at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Bonyhád Völgység will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff