Bonnyrigg White Eagles 1–0 Nepean: Result & Stats

Bonnyrigg White Eagles

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Nepean

D. Bittar 45'

6/29/2024

New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 22Bonnyrigg Sports Club

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Bonnyrigg White Eagles51%

×Draw25%

Nepean24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bonnyrigg White EaglesExpected goals in this matchNepean

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.04

Bonnyrigg White Eagles

1.62

Nepean

1.04

Bonnyrigg White Eagles creates 56% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 15 away

1.57

creates per match

0.67

1.42

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Bonnyrigg White Eagles

1.57

Nepean

0.67

allows per match

Bonnyrigg White Eagles

1.42

Nepean

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bonnyrigg White Eagles+0.00on par

Nepean+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bonnyrigg White Eagles ↓

Nepean →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Bonnyrigg White Eagles or draw

76%

Bonnyrigg White Eagles or Nepean

75%

Draw or Nepean

49%

Winning margin

Bonnyrigg White Eagles wins by 2+

27%

Nepean wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Bonnyrigg White Eagles 1+ goals

80%

Bonnyrigg White Eagles 2+ goals

48%

Bonnyrigg White Eagles 3+ goals

22%

Nepean 1+ goals

65%

Nepean 2+ goals

28%

Nepean 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Bonnyrigg White Eagles (draw refunded)

68%

Nepean (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bonnyrigg White Eagles at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.42 · 65 matches

Nepean away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bonnyrigg White Eagles attack 1.57 + Nepean defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.62

Nepean attack 0.67 + Bonnyrigg White Eagles defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bonnyrigg White Eagles scores more

51%

level

25%

Nepean scores more

24%

Bonnyrigg White Eagles at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bonnyrigg White Eagles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

D. Bittar

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff