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Bonnyrigg White Eagles vs Blacktown Spartans — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Bonnyrigg White Eagles
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
CANC
09:00
Blacktown Spartans
Blacktown Spartans
7/23/2022New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 20Bonnyrigg Sports Club

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Bonnyrigg White Eagles42%
×Draw24%
Blacktown Spartans34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bonnyrigg White Eagles
1.62
Blacktown Spartans
1.44

Bonnyrigg White Eagles creates 13% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 73 away

creates per match

Bonnyrigg White Eagles
1.57
Blacktown Spartans
1.45

allows per match

Bonnyrigg White Eagles
1.42
Blacktown Spartans
1.67

finishing

Bonnyrigg White Eagles+0.00on par
Blacktown Spartans+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bonnyrigg White Eagles ↓

Blacktown Spartans →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Bonnyrigg White Eagles or draw
66%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles or Blacktown Spartans
76%
Draw or Blacktown Spartans
58%

Winning margin

Bonnyrigg White Eagles wins by 2+
21%
Blacktown Spartans wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Bonnyrigg White Eagles 1+ goals
80%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles 2+ goals
48%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles 3+ goals
22%
Blacktown Spartans 1+ goals
76%
Blacktown Spartans 2+ goals
42%
Blacktown Spartans 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Bonnyrigg White Eagles (draw refunded)
55%
Blacktown Spartans (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bonnyrigg White Eagles at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.42 · 65 matches

Blacktown Spartans away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.67 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bonnyrigg White Eagles attack 1.57 + Blacktown Spartans defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.62

Blacktown Spartans attack 1.45 + Bonnyrigg White Eagles defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bonnyrigg White Eagles scores more
42%
level
24%
Blacktown Spartans scores more
34%

Bonnyrigg White Eagles at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bonnyrigg White Eagles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bonnyrigg White Eagles vs Blacktown Spartans — Match Preview

Bonnyrigg White Eagles face Blacktown Spartans on July 23, 2022 in this New South Wales NPL 2 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Bonnyrigg White Eagles host Blacktown Spartans at Bonnyrigg Sports Club.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.