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Blacktown Spartans vs Bonnyrigg White Eagles — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Blacktown Spartans
Blacktown Spartans
FT
4 – 0
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
3/2/2024New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 4Blacktown Football Park 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Blacktown Spartans50%
×Draw22%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blacktown Spartans
1.96
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
1.43

Blacktown Spartans creates 37% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 62 away

creates per match

Blacktown Spartans
1.95
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
1.31

allows per match

Blacktown Spartans
1.55
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
1.98

finishing

Blacktown Spartans+0.00on par
Bonnyrigg White Eagles+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blacktown Spartans ↓

Bonnyrigg White Eagles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Blacktown Spartans or draw
72%
Blacktown Spartans or Bonnyrigg White Eagles
78%
Draw or Bonnyrigg White Eagles
50%

Winning margin

Blacktown Spartans wins by 2+
28%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Blacktown Spartans 1+ goals
86%
Blacktown Spartans 2+ goals
58%
Blacktown Spartans 3+ goals
31%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles 1+ goals
76%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles 2+ goals
42%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Blacktown Spartans (draw refunded)
64%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blacktown Spartans at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.55 · 77 matches

Bonnyrigg White Eagles away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.98 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blacktown Spartans attack 1.95 + Bonnyrigg White Eagles defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.96

Bonnyrigg White Eagles attack 1.31 + Blacktown Spartans defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Blacktown Spartans scores more
50%
level
22%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles scores more
28%

Blacktown Spartans at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Blacktown Spartans will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Blacktown Spartans vs Bonnyrigg White Eagles

Blacktown Spartans beat Bonnyrigg White Eagles 4-0 in New South Wales NPL 2 on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Blacktown Football Park 1 in Sydney.