Bonnyrigg White Eagles 0–1 Bankstown City Lions

Bonnyrigg White Eagles

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Bankstown City Lions

H. Davies 21'

6/28/2025

New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 21Bonnyrigg Sports Club

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Bonnyrigg White Eagles40%

×Draw24%

Bankstown City Lions36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bonnyrigg White EaglesExpected goals in this matchBankstown City Lions

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.46

Bonnyrigg White Eagles

1.56

Bankstown City Lions

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 57 away

1.57

creates per match

1.49

1.42

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Bonnyrigg White Eagles

1.57

Bankstown City Lions

1.49

allows per match

Bonnyrigg White Eagles

1.42

Bankstown City Lions

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bonnyrigg White Eagles+0.00on par

Bankstown City Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bonnyrigg White Eagles ↓

Bankstown City Lions →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Bonnyrigg White Eagles or draw

64%

Bonnyrigg White Eagles or Bankstown City Lions

76%

Draw or Bankstown City Lions

60%

Winning margin

Bonnyrigg White Eagles wins by 2+

20%

Bankstown City Lions wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Bonnyrigg White Eagles 1+ goals

79%

Bonnyrigg White Eagles 2+ goals

46%

Bonnyrigg White Eagles 3+ goals

21%

Bankstown City Lions 1+ goals

77%

Bankstown City Lions 2+ goals

43%

Bankstown City Lions 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Bonnyrigg White Eagles (draw refunded)

53%

Bankstown City Lions (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bonnyrigg White Eagles at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.42 · 65 matches

Bankstown City Lions away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.54 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bonnyrigg White Eagles attack 1.57 + Bankstown City Lions defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.56

Bankstown City Lions attack 1.49 + Bonnyrigg White Eagles defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bonnyrigg White Eagles scores more

40%

level

24%

Bankstown City Lions scores more

36%

Bonnyrigg White Eagles at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bonnyrigg White Eagles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

H. Davies

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff