Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 1–2 Spartans

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Spartans

11/29/2025

FA Cup · Round of 64New Dundas Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic55%

×Draw21%

Spartans23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bonnyrigg Rose AthleticExpected goals in this matchSpartans

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.07

1.28

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

2.07

Spartans

1.28

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic creates 62% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

2.00

creates per match

1.43

1.14

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

2.00

Spartans

1.43

allows per match

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

1.14

Spartans

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic+0.00on par

Spartans+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic ↓

Spartans →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic or draw

77%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic or Spartans

79%

Draw or Spartans

45%

Winning margin

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic wins by 2+

33%

Spartans wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 1+ goals

87%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 2+ goals

61%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 3+ goals

34%

Spartans 1+ goals

72%

Spartans 2+ goals

37%

Spartans 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic (draw refunded)

70%

Spartans (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Spartans away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic attack 2.00 + Spartans defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.07

Spartans attack 1.43 + Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic scores more

55%

level

21%

Spartans scores more

23%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic vs Spartans

Spartans beat Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 2-1 in FA Cup on November 29, 2025.

The match was played at New Dundas Park in Bonnyrigg.

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic vs Spartans — FA Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic vs Spartans